Note that predictions can be wrong, and that analysts' steel price forecasts shouldn't be used . The STEEL price can reach a maximum level of $0.055 with the average price of $0.047 throughout 2031. Risk Factors in our Annual Report on Form 10-K and those described from time to time in our reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Bangladesh, DR Congo, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, Tanzania, and Vietnam countries that will account for 36% of the worlds population by 2050 are all yet to see peak steel demand per capita and will drive an increase in global steel use from 1.83 gigatons per year in 2020 to more than 3 gigatons in 2050. Work by the Energy Transition Commission shows that it is technically feasible to decarbonise primary steel production 6. Basic oxygen furnace (BOF) output will decline 0.5% annually until 2050, whereas EAF output could increase 2.3% yearly in the same period. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the risks and uncertainties described on this webpage and in Item 1A. 153 million tonnes Annual production of steel The sector produces on average 153 million tonnes of finished steel per year. We have already made progress in this area with our acquisition of Big River Steel and completion of the construction of the Fairfield Works Tubular EAF, which resulted in approximately a 10-15% reduction in our GHG emissions intensity. India and Southeast Asia will in turn worsen their emission profile as their crude steel production rises through the BF-BOF route. - Robin Latchem - March 30, 2022 Global production of crude steel production in February was 142.7 million tonnes, down 5.7% on February 2021. We know achieving our specific goal of net-zero GHG emissions by 2050 and the global goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C requires extraordinary action from every company, industry, sector, and government. IEA, Global crude steel production by process route and scenario, 2019-2050, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/global-crude-steel-production-by-process-route-and-scenario-2019-2050, IEA. By In particular, a significant switch such as that described in the true change scenario could require metal providers to adapt their business models, possibly redefining themselves as material providers, integrating primary metal, recycled material, and substitute products. 909, Capability Dr Suite 2050, Raleigh, NC 27606, USA. To meet global energy and climate goals, emissions from the steel industry must fall by at least 50% by 2050, with continuing declines towards zero emissions being pursued thereafter. In FY22, exports and imports of finished steel stood at 13.49 MT and 4.67 MT, respectively. These will soon be joined by other developing nations, taking up a greater portion of the worlds population. (See Exhibit 2.). In India, which is in an earlier stage of economic growth, the figure is below 20%. Apart from being produced by raw materials, steel may be . Rethink Energy currently predicts that it will rise by 43% over the next three decades. In the first scenario, demand for these two commodities will continue to increase although growth will slow. All rights reserved. Submit it today to: WSD@aist.org. The scrap ratio will continue to increase from 2020 to 2030 in China and is expected to reach 0.366 by 2030. Get insights into factors crucial to scaling hydrogen, including policy, regulations, safety, and investment. Create a free IEA account to download our reports or subcribe to a paid service. However, with global steel giants like ArcelorMittal, Nippon Steel, Posco, and Chinas Buowu Steel Group pledging themselves to net zero emissions of their own accord, this primary production, itself will also face dramatic transformation. Steel production by country and region However, there are several significant differences in the forecasts when considering several countries and/or regions - especially in the case of China and India: China . Global crude steel production by process route and scenario, 2019-2050 - Chart and data by the International Energy Agency. Commercial SR-BOF refers to smelting reduction without CCUS (COREX and FINEX). According to steel production forecasts, the calculated scrap ratio. Wood Mackenzie projects that 40% of DRI produced by mid-century will be hydrogen-based. Boston Consulting Group is an Equal Opportunity Employer. Such changes would happen only if economically feasiblethat is, if prices for secondary (recycled) material become more attractive relative to primary extracted material. The overall stock of steel in a country will also typically stabilize at around 10 tons per person. In the second scenario, the focus on recycling and the consequent sharp increase in demand for scrap will reduce demand for iron ore and metallurgical coal beginning in 2020 and approximating today's levels by 2050. Just as we have led the industry with development of innovations for more than 100 years, we are now setting standards required to lead steel manufacturing into a sustainable future. This webpage contains information that may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. The world crude steel production amounted to over 1.86 billion metric tons in 2020, a stable volume compared to 2019. Because of this, while secondary steel production, using scrap as a feedstock, will increase by 134% between 2020 and 2050, it is unlikely that primary production will peak until the early 2040s. Other examples of footprint changes include the permanent idling of our Great Lakes Works steelmaking and hot rolling operations. The two scenarios share the same underlying steel-demand assumptions, with production overcapacity remaining prevalent for the next decade. It will not happen by itself. The WSD figure calls for 2050 production of 1.984 billion tonnes - a 0.2% per annum gain, compounded, over the same period. Metals and Mining Industry, In the second scenario, of course, recycled scrap will be increasingly dominant, constituting close to 70 percent of the 2050 global total, and primary steel production will increase only marginally over todays levels. Even in this scenario, the use of scrap in the steel-making process will take on a more important role over time, with a corresponding decline in demand for primary resources (iron ore and metallurgical coal). However, caution should be taken not to place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements because such statements speak only as of the date when made. The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that steel demand will grow by 5.8% in 2021 to reach 1,874.0 million tonnes (Mt), after declining by 0.2% in 2020. Mining and Metals in a Sustainable World 2050will be a dominant topic on both public and private agendas. For existing operations, we are continuously striving to use less energy, whether that energy is from purchased electricity, purchased natural gas, or the coal and coke used in our processes. This page has Steel Production values for China. In a society with an encompassing, albeit blurry, objective of sustainability, one primary aim is to decouple carbon emissions from economic growth. WSD's forecast for "possible" global steel production in 2050 is about 1.887 billion tonnes; or, up 14 million tonnes from the 1.873 billion tonnes produced in 2019.Chinese output falls 19.7% to 800 million tonnes from 996 million tonnes in 2019 Advanced Country output in 2050 declines 5.0% to 435 million tonnes from 458 million tonnes, respectively; and, the Rest of World output rises . Annual production for China was 870.8 million metric tons of crude steel in 2017 . following this logic, pure hydrogen-based steel production is expected to be cash cost competitive between 2030 and 2040 in europe. Steel Roadmap for a Low Carbon Europe 2050 3.1. DRI will also receive a boost, primarily due to commercial adoption of the hydrogen-based route. Worldwide, the scenario envisions, both routes would use scrap to maximum capacity: 25 percent for the oxygen routes and almost 100 percent for the electric routes. Construction, automotive to return to 2019 level in 2022. The key to success is understanding what the future holds. Global Environ. Innovative BF-BOF with CCUS includes blast furnaces with process gas hydrogen enrichment and CO2 removal for use and storage (e.g. Steel Price Prediction 2031 The price of 1 Steel is expected to reach at a minimum level of $0.045 in 2031. However, in 2021, hot-rolled . Global steel prices forecast to remain elevated in 2022. The Melbourne, Australia-based miner forecasts surging demand for wind and solar farm equipment to boost steel demand by 2 percent in 2030 and by 4 percent in 2050. Steel demand is anticipated to grow by roughly four percent between 2020 and 2021. For each ton of crude steel produced through this method, as much as 2.3 tons of CO2 is emitted, while 6.1 MWh of energy is consumed. Recent reductions in Chinese melting activity are the primary reason for the downgraded figure. The World Steel Association (worldsteel) released an update of its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that steel demand will grow by 4.5% in 2021 and reach 1,855.4 Mt after 0.1% growth . Wood Mackenzie estimates Chinese emissions to halve between 2021 and 2050, and a major proportion of emissions reduction will come from the projected fall in steel output. Through transforming the use of energy in this sector to rely on low-carbon sources, the absolute values behind these figures will have to fall to near zero for countries including China, India and the US to hit their emission reduction targets and to limit climate change to non-catastrophic levels. Steel in the average building has a lifecycle of 43 years, vehicles typically last around 19 years, while machinery and consumer goods have lifetimes of 22 years and 10 years respectively. It would require concerted action by governments and the industry to incentivize the shift, make it financially feasible, and drive change. Management believes that these forward-looking statements are reasonable as of the time made. The model tracks the functional age of facilities. The steel industry is expected to commence hydrogen use as early as 2027, with EU taking the lead. In the pioneering spirit of its founders, Moving from our 2030 goal of a 20% reduction in GHG emissions based on intensity to our 2050 goal will involve the development of various technologies. EAF to play key role in steel decarbonisation; its tech share to be almost on par with BOF. In the coming weeks, Rethink Energy will release its Future of Steel report to address the penetration of these decarbonizing technologies in key markets, and the implications the transition will have on stakeholders throughout the steel and energy sectors. 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