. Democrats have zeroed in on Johnson's seat as they fight to hang onto their razor-thin Senate majority. Jared Polis to be vulnerable in a Republican-leaning midterm in D+6 Colorado, but his net approval rating is 16 points higher than that, giving him a nice cushion in case the national environment puts his state in play. Johnson, 67, has also been a magnet for criticism from Democrats who say he has spread harmful conspiracy theories about the coronavirus and the integrity of the 2020 election, among other controversial remarks. Fifty-one percent of voters disapprove of his performance, including 56 . Gerald Ford 1974-77. This ad will close automatically in 15 seconds. A Division of NBCUniversal. Data is a real-time snapshot *Data is delayed at least 15 minutes. WISN host Adrienne Pederson grilled Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) about his toxic brand and his low approval ratings.In an interview on Sunday, Pederson asked Johnson how he planned to win re-election . But he also stood to benefit from a difficult political climate for Democrats, reflected in President Joe Biden's poor approval ratings. For all these reasons, some nonpartisan analysts think Johnson has a better than even chance of getting reelected. In a state where the Democratic president eked out one of his narrowest margins of victory over Trump (just under 21,000 votes), Biden has seen his standing plummet especially in the suburban communities that Democrats relied on for 2018 midterm victories and Bidens own success. Some 83% of Republicans polled said they are absolutely certain to vote in the November general election, over 82% of Democrats and 66% of independents. But a lot has changed in the last few months. The souring has been steepest among independent voters in Wisconsin. But the electorate has hardened around him. The remaining 12% said they did not know or had no opinion. The results echo a poll done in mid-May by Public Policy Polling for the Milwaukee nonprofit,Milwaukee Works, which found a virtual dead heat between Michels and Kleefisch. Both have negative net approval ratings despite governing fairly blue states. When the dates . Then we compared Johnsons current standing among these groups with two earlier periods in his 12-year Senate career: 2019, when he enjoyed his best-sustained ratings in Marquettes polling; and late 2015 to early 2016, which was Johnsons low point in popularity before now. The new Marquette Law School poll shows a tight race in the Democratic primary for U.S. Compared with Johnsons previous low point in late 2015 and early 2016, the senator has increased his popularity with groups that lean Republican, lean to the right and were already supportive. GOP Candidate: Ron Johnson (Incumbent) Dem Candidates: Mandela Barnes. So is the gap between how conservatives and liberals view him. RCP House Ratings, Map. 36% of Wisconsin voters approved of Johnson's job performance and 51% disapproved in the fourth quarter of 2021. Fewer people dont know him or are undecided in their views of him. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson will defend his seat against Democratic Lt. Gov. The poll, whose . Also, a mix of both parties dominates the top of the list not just Democrats. Franklin is professor of law and public policy at Marquette Law School, and director of the Marquette Law School Poll, And we see that downward movement across most of the groups we looked at. At the same time, Johnson has grown that much more unpopular among groups that tilt Democratic, tilt to the left and were already negative toward him. A Democratic governor with a net approval of +2 in an R+7 state has a PARG of +9 (2+7 = 9). During the pandemic, the senator has blasted health agencies and medical experts, promoted unproven treatments and questioned the broad push for vaccination. The American Independent is the No. Doug Jones (36) RCP House Ratings, Map. All Rights Reserved. Partisan types. The questions are: What happens to the political environment is it good enough that it can lift him over the top? That suggests she has a bit of crossover appeal, but that her fate is still closely tied to partisanship. This version of partisan lean, meant to be used for congressional and gubernatorial elections, is calculated as 50 percent the state or districts lean relative to the nation in the most recent presidential election, 25 percent its relative lean in the second-most-recent presidential election and 25 percent a custom state-legislative lean. Learn more. Based on Morning Consults approval ratings1 for every senator and governor in the country (now updated for the first quarter of 2022), PARS and PARG attempt to measure how much stronger (or weaker) a politician is than a generic (or, to use a term from baseball, replacement-level) candidate from their party would be. Tommy Rife, of Cedar Bluff, Va., is charged with one count of misdemeanor assault and battery, according to Richlands Police Chief Ron Holt. Incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is widening the gap over his Democratic challenger, Mandela Barnes, in Wisconsin's Senate race, a new poll from Marquette Law School found. A poll taken in June 2022 found that 37% of respondents thought favorably of the senator, while 46% did not, giving him a net approval rating of -9. Sen. Ron Johnson is commonly referred to as one of the country's most unpopular U.S. senators. Susan Collins (25). Johnson is widely considered the most vulnerable Republican senator up for re-election this year, but some see a path to victory built on Bidens own unpopularity and traditional midterm dynamics that favor the party outside the White House. It's just that people in the legacy media call me one and all of a sudden, you become one. 56% of independent voters in Wisconsin disapproved of Johnsons job performance up 14 percentage points since late 2020. Among independents, 56 percent disapprove of Johnsons job performance up 14 points since the third quarter of 2020, before the presidential election while the share with no opinion fell from 28 to 16 percent during the same period. Over the nine months previous to this, Johnson has averaged 35% favorable and 44% unfavorable ratings in the MU polls, the lowest since Marquette began polling about him in 2013. In that five-month stretch, he averaged a net rating of minus 8. Multiple polls also show Johnson's approval ratings underwater. Bolded rows denote governors running for reelection in 2022. By Eli Yokley. I think Johnson is in a strong position from the standpoint of being the incumbent and not having a primary, Hitt said. While the majority of Wisconsin Republican voters (62 percent) approve of his job performance, that figure is down from 70 percent before the pandemic and from 78 percent in the first three months of 2017, just after his re-election. This unpopularity could drag him down in November, allowing Democrats to flip a Senate seat that, on paper, should remain Republican in this environment. The Republican is currently seeking reelection to a third term, breaking a promise to serve no more than two. But his moderation has endeared him to voters in his home state of West Virginia: He has a +22 net approval rating in the R+36 state, for a chamber-leading PARS of +58. Map 1: Crystal Ball Senate ratings. Tony Evers of Wisconsin may be more at the mercy of the national mood. But the decline hasnt been even across groups. Ron Johnson (R)* Bio | Campaign Site. Gas prices have plummeted. A few weeks after the 2020 election, the Crystal Ball put out an early look at the 2022 Senate races. Quarterly poll conducted Oct. 1-Dec. 31, 2021, among a representative sample of 10,496 registered Wisconsin voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-1 percentage points. Finally, the two governors with the worst PARGs are Democrats Kate Brown of Oregon (-25) and David Ige of Hawaii (-41). Share: Listen Download. Timmy! After he was elected in 2020 to serve out the remainder of the late John McCain's (R-AZ) term, Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) is seeking a full term this year. Several hugely divisive events have occurred since 2019, however: the GOP effort to decertify the 2020 election; the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol; and the pandemic that began in early 2020. While other states may have difficulty motivating Democrats to turn out, the vitriol that Johnson inspires in Democrats in Wisconsin will help to drive turnout, said Wisconsin Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson faces a Wisconsin electorate that is more negative toward him and more polarizedoverhim than ever. Asked what Johnson is doing to improve his standing, spokeswoman Alexa Henning said his supporters discount mainstream media outlets and see through the lies and distortions of their false attacks. She said the senator had received strong encouragement to forgo his two-term pledge and run for re-election from Wisconsinites who share his grave concerns over the direction Democrats are taking our country.. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, his PARS would be -5 (2-7 = -5). In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Barnes still leads, with 25% of the vote versus 21% for Milwaukee Bucks executive Alex Lasry, 9%for state treasurer Sarah Godlewski. . The Supreme Court Not So Much. One month ago, Biden had an approval rating of 42.2 percent and a disapproval rating of 52.2 percent, for a net approval rating of -10.0 points. Marquette Law School survey shows a decline in Johnson's popularity over the past few years. However, the latest Maqrutee poll shows Johnson up 1% after a barrage of attacks ads. Both politicians were backed by 43 percent of likely voters. Raphael Warnock of Georgia, Mark Kelly of Arizona and Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada are all rated Toss-ups, while Sen. Maggie Hassan 's race in New Hampshire is . For this analysis, Franklin and I examined Johnsons popularity with different demographic and political groups: men, women, old, young, liberal, conservative, urban, rural, suburban, etc. In September, among likely voters, Johnson received 49% and Barnes 48%. At this point, very few people dont have an impression of him, Wikler said. Lyndon B. Johnson 1963-69. Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Biden's approval rating, right now, is mired at around 42% to 43% on average. But Barnes' campaign has largely focused on economic issues, highlighting his middle-class upbringing in Milwaukee and contrasting it with Johnson's status as one of the richest members of the Senate. Ron Johnson Dramatically Underperforms in First Finance Report Since Announcing for Reelection - Lt. Gov. Kelly, on the other hand, does have a brand distinct from the national Democratic Party, but its an open question whether she can get enough Kansas Republicans who approve of her to take the extra step and vote for her as well. He assumed office on January 3, 2011. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501 (c) (4), 501 (c) (5) or 501 (c) (6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of . In an interview with CNN, Barnes said Johnson turned his back on working people. Johnson repeatedly referred to Barnes as radical, posting a tweet calling him the Democratic Partys most radical left candidate. The race has become one of the most highly anticipated races in the November election, as both parties attempt to tip the 50-50 stalemate in the Senate (Vice President Kamala Harris is the tiebreaker). Appointment o Appoint ambassadors, public ministers, federal judges: with advice and consent of the Senate o Appoints about 3,500 people, of which 1,125 require Senate approval o Can remove many of these apps at will o Technically appts military personnel o Selection of the right people: very imp o Cabinet: formal body of presidential . Bush 1989-93. 1990 FLEER. While the results are better for Evers than Johnson, and offer the best news for Michels and Barnes among the challengers, the difference in most cases does not surpass the 6.3% margin of error for the governors race and 6.4% for the U.S.Senator race. Both Kelly and Republican State Attorney General Derek Schmidt won their respective nominations with little opposition. Almost 40% of voters six years ago didnt know Johnson or had no opinion of him, compared with around20% today. His approval rating, according to a recent Marquette Law School poll, is at 41% up four points since June and yet, Wisconsin is on the verge of sending him back to Washington for a third term.. . Rife's warrant was served Wednesday and he is awaiting . MU poll also shows Michels/Kleefisch in virtual tie in GOP primary for governor. Angus King and Bernie Sanders are considered Democrats for the purposes of these calculations. Johnson's campaign had raised more than $17 million by July 20, compared with $7 million raised by Barnes though Barnes' campaign said on Aug. 1 that it raised $1.1 million in just a week, after his Democratic rivals united behind him. In . Can we marry dogs? According to a Morning Consult Political Intelligence survey of all 50 states, just 37% of registered Wisconsin voters approve of Johnson, while 51% disapprove. Contact Us, Take the next step, become a member. He welcomes comment at: drooks . I'm not a polarizing figure at all. Its based on the same premise as my Popularity Above Replacement Governor (PARG) statistic1 that its a good idea to think about politicians popularity in the context of their states partisanship. Incumbent Sens. Another factor that could affect the vote which bodes well for Republicans is the enthusiasm factor, which typically drives the turnout and can be critical in a swing state like Wisconsin. Johnson's campaign has lashed out at Barnes as a "career political activist" who is too far left for the purple state of Wisconsin, which Trump carried in 2016 and only narrowly lost in 2020. And if he is able to maintain a positive net approval rating (its +6 currently), that will be a sign of life for his candidacy. @eyokley, Download Fastest Growing Brands 2022 Report, Sen. Ron Johnson speaks about the origins of COVID-19 at a press conference in Washington, D.C., in June 2021. Ron Johnson is America's second least popular senator after only Mitch (Photo by Caroline Brehman/CQ Roll Call via AP Images), Biden throws out Trump energy policy that added millions of tons of carbon pollution, Madison Cawthorn caught breaking the law again, Marjorie Taylor Greene pledges bill to criminalize gender-affirming care in CPAC speech, Republicans lawmakers show off their awards from anti-LGBTQ Family Research Council. Johnson has come under fire in recent months for his votes to cut taxes for himself and his very rich donors while backing "most of" National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Rick Scott's 11-point "Rescue America" proposal which includes a large tax hike for more than 100 million lower-income and retired Americans and fighting against efforts to make child care more affordable. According to the latest figures, taken from surveys conducted among 10,496 registered Wisconsin voters between Oct. 1 and Dec. 31, 36 percent of Badger State voters approved of his job performance, 51 percent disapproved and 13 percent had no opinion. In 2014, McConnell also had popularity problems, and Democrats thought they had a top candidate to challenge him in Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes. The question is: What will those suburban swing voters think? Yes. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. While other states may have difficulty motivating Democrats to turn out, the vitriol that Johnson inspires in Democrats in Wisconsin will help to drive turnout, said Wisconsin Democratic strategist Tanya Bjork. That earlier dip in Johnsons numbers is significant for several reasons. FiveThirtyEights partisan lean metric is the average difference between how a state votes and how the country votes overall, with 2016 presidential election results weighted at 50 percent, 2012 presidential election results weighted at 25 percent and results from elections for the state legislature weighted at 25 percent. Jimmy Carter 1977-81. We strive to report with honesty and integrity, shining a light on those in power and the progressive politics movement. And the dividing lines over Johnson have deepened since he was last on the ballot in 2016. Voicemail to me on election night 18 yrs. 2020 Senate Elections (55) Cory Gardner of Colorado, Joni Ernst of Iowa, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and John Cornyn of Texas. Why has the electorate increasingly polarized over Johnson? Yet, even though his net approval rating has long been underwater, he easily won reelection in 2020 thanks to Kentuckys overwhelming Republican lean. Governor Rebecca Kleefisch. Baker, Hogan, Beshear and Edwards arent on the ballot this year; Baker and Hogan are retiring, while Kentucky and Louisiana elect their governors in odd years. If the same state had a Republican senator with the same approval rating, the PARS would be -5 . Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. Republican Sen. Ron Johnson of Wisconsin will defend his seat against Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes in a swing-state face off that could become one of the most competitive races of the midterms. Another may be Johnsons increasingly outspoken support for Donald Trump, the ultimate lightning rod in American politics. Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes who is running to become the Democratic nominee for the U.S. senate greets guests during a campaign event at The Wicked Hop on August 07, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The two-term incumbent, backed by former President Donald Trump, is the only Republican senator running for reelection in a state that President Joe Biden won in 2020. The governor got 48% of the vote to 41% for Michels, 48% versus 40% for Nicholson, and 48% versus 41% for Ramthun. I've done a really good job as Wisconsin's United States senator," he told Milwaukee television station WISN.
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